CINCINNATI-FINANCIAL Earningcall Transcript Of Q2 of 2024


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from executive vice president and chief financial officer, Mike Sewell. After their prepared remarks,

investors participating on the call may ask questions, At that time, some responses may be made by

others in the room with us, including executive chairman, Steve Johnston; chief investment officer,

Steve  Soloria;  and  Cincinnati  Insurance's  chief  claims  officer,  Mark  Schambow;  and  senior  vice

president  of  corporate  finance,  Theresa  Hoffer.  Please  note  that  some  of  these  matters  to  be

discussed today are forward-looking.

These forward-looking statements include certain risks and uncertainties. With respect to these risks

and  uncertainties,  we  direct  your  attention  to  our  news  release  and  to  our  various  filings  with  the

SEC.  Also,  a  reconciliation  of  non-GAAP  measures  was  provided  with  the  news  release.  The

statutory accounting data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules and therefore is

not reconciled to GAAP.

Now, I'll turn it over to call to Steve. 

Steve Spray -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good  morning  and  thank  you  for  joining  us  today  to  hear  more  about  our  results.  We  had  a  good

quarter  and  first  half  of  the  year.  In  addition  to  our  strong  financial  performance,  recent  travel  to

meet  with  agents  reinforced  my  excitement  about  the  future.  Agents  are  quite  enthusiastic  about

doing  business  with  us,  citing  our  responsiveness  as  we  answer  the  call,  both  literally  and

figuratively, to help them navigate this challenging insurance market. While picking up the phone is

part of our culture, the confidence we have in our expertise in Cincinnati's Financial's strength lets

us continue growing profitably, delivering insurance solutions for our agents and their best clients.

Net income of $312 million for the second-quarter of 2024 included recognition of $112 million on an

after-tax  basis  for  the  increase  in  fair  value  of  equity  securities  still  held.  Non-GAAP  operating

income  of  $204  million  for  the  second  quarter  was  up  $13  million  from  a  year  ago.  Investment

income  continued  to  grow  nicely  and  contributed  $17  million  of  the  increase.  The  98.5%

second-quarter  2024  property  casualty  combined  ratio  was  0.9  percentage  points  higher  than  the

second  quarter  of  last  year  and  included  a  decrease  of  0.8  points  for  catastrophe  losses.  That

brought the first-half combined ratio to 96.1%, a nice place to be as we head into the second half of

the  year.  Typically,  the  end  of  the  year  tends  to  be  better  than  the  beginning,  in  part  due  to  the

catastrophe  loss  ratio  averaging  about  two  points  better  in  the  second  half  based  on  the  past  10

years.  Our  88.2%  accident  year  2024  combined  ratio  before  catastrophe  losses  improved  by  2.2

percentage  points  compared  with  accident  year  2023  for  the  second  quarter,  and  was  0.7  points

better on a six-month basis.

Once again, overall reserve development on prior accident years was favorable. Although it was 3.6

points lower than a year ago, as we continue to consider uncertainty regarding ultimate losses and

remain prudent in our reserve estimates until longer-term loss cost trends become more clear, we

are  entering  the  second  half  of  the  year  with  confidence  and  optimism.  In  addition  to  improved

accident year results and an overall combined ratio for the first half of 2024, that was better than last

year's  first  half,  we  are  pleased  with  measures  --  with  other  measures  regarding  our  operating

performance. We had strong second-quarter premium growth and believe it is profitable growth.

We  continue  to  use  pricing  segmentation  by  risk,  plus  average  price  increases,  along  with  careful

risk selection to help improve our underwriting profitability. Those efforts plus others are bolstering

our  progress  in  managing  elevated  inflation  effects  on  insured  losses.  Agencies  representing

Cincinnati  Insurance  produced  another  quarter  of  profitable  business  for  us,  and  we  continue  to

appoint additional agencies where we see a appropriate expansion opportunities. Our underwriters

continue to do excellent work as they emphasize retaining profitable accounts and managing ones

that  we  determine  have  inadequate  pricing  based  on  our  risk  selection  and  pricing  expertise.

Estimated average renewal price increases for the second quarter were again at healthy levels with

commercial  lines  near  the  low  end  of  the  high  single-digit  percentage  range,  excess  and  surplus

lines in the high single-digit range, personal auto in the low double-digit range, and homeowner in

the high single-digit range. Our consolidated property casualty net written premiums grew 14% for

the  quarter,  including  12%  growth  in  agency  renewal  premiums  and  34%  in  new  business

premiums.  Next,  I'll  briefly  highlight  operating  performance  by  insurance  segment,  focusing  on

second-quarter  premium  growth  and  underwriting  profitability  compared  with  a  year  ago.

Commercial lines grew net written premium 7% for the second quarter with a 99.1% combined ratio

that increased by 2.2 percentage points and included prior accident year reserve development that

was less favorable by 2.9 points.

Personal  lines  grew  net  written  premiums  30%  including  growth  in  middle  market  accounts  in

addition to Cincinnati private client business for our agencies' high net worth clients. This combined

ratio was 106.9%, 0.7% -- percentage points better than last year despite an increase of 1.2 points

from higher catastrophe losses. Excess and surplus lines grew net written premiums 15% and was

also profitable with a combined ratio of 95.4%, up 3.2 percentage points from second quarter a year

ago due to unfavorable reserve development. Both Cincinnati Re and Cincinnati Global were again

very profitable and continue to reflect our efforts to diversify risk and further improve income stability.

Cincinnati Re's combined ratio for the second quarter of 2024 was an excellent 70.1%. It grew net

written premiums by 17%, bringing the overall six-month written premium for 2024 in line with 2023.

Cincinnati Global's combined ratio was also excellent at 63.2%. While it grew net written premiums

2%  for  the  first  half  of  the  year,  second-quarter  premiums  were  down  18%,  reflecting  pricing

discipline  in  a  very  competitive  market.  Our  life  insurance  subsidiary  had  an  outstanding  quarter

including net income of $24 million and operating income growth of 26%. Term life insurance earned

premiums grew 2%.

I'll conclude with our primary measure of long-term financial performance, the value creation ratio.

Our  second-quarter  2024  VCR  was  2.2%.  Net  income  before  investment  gains  or  losses  for  the

quarter  contributed  1.6%.  Higher  overall  valuation  of  our  investment  portfolio  and  other  items

contributed 0.6%. Now, chief financial officer, Mike Sewell, will add his comments to highlight other

parts of our financial performance.

Mike Sewell -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank  you,  Steve,  and  thanks  to  all  of  you  for  joining  us  today.  Investment  income  continued  to

grow,  up  10%  for  the  second  quarter  of  2024  compared  with  the  same  quarter  in  2023.  Dividend

income was down 1%, or $1 million for the quarter, primarily due to two unusual items that totaled

approximately  $2  million.  One  was  a  holding  with  a  June  ex-dividend  date  in  2023  that  moved  to

July 1st in 2024.

The  other  was  a  holding  that  reduced  its  dividend  rate  by  53%  after  a  spin-off  transaction.  Bond

interest  income  grew  18%  for  the  second  quarter  of  this  year.  We  again  added  fixed  maturity

securities to our investment portfolio with net purchases totaling $771 million for the first six months

of the year. The second-quarter pre-tax average yield of 4.64% for the fixed maturity portfolio was

up 30 basis points compared with last year.

The  average  pre-tax  yield  for  the  total  of  purchased  taxable  and  tax-exempt  bonds  during  the

second quarter of 2024 was 6.06%. Valuation changes in aggregate for the second quarter of 2024

were favorable for our equity portfolio, and unfavorable for our bond portfolio. Before tax effects, the

net gain was $149 million for the equity portfolio, partially offset by a net loss of $93 million for the

bond  portfolio.  At  the  end  of  the  quarter,  total  investment  portfolio  net  appreciated  value  was

approximately $6.7 billion.

The equity portfolio was in a net gain position of $7.4 billion, while the fixed maturity portfolio was in

a net loss position of $700 million. Cash flow continued to benefit investment income in addition to a

higher  bond  yields.  Cash  flow  from  operating  activities  for  the  first  six  months  of  2024  was  $1.1

billion,  up  33%  from  a  year  ago.  I'll  move  on  to  expense  management  where  we  always  work  to

balance controlling expenses with making strategic investments in our business.

The  second  quarter  2024  property  casualty  underwriting  expense  ratio  was  0.5  percentage  points

higher  than  last  year,  reflecting  higher  levels  of  profit-sharing  commissions  for  our  agencies  and

employee-related  expenses.  Next,  let  me  comment  on  loss  reserves  where  our  approach  remains

consistent and aims for net amounts in the upper half of the actuarially estimated range of net loss

and  loss  expense  reserves.  As  we  do  each  quarter,  we  consider  new  information  such  as  paid

losses  and  case  reserves,  then  we  updated  estimated  ultimate  losses  and  loss  expenses  by

accident  year  and  line  of  business.  For  the  first  six  months  of  2024,  our  net  additions  to  property

casualty loss expense reserves was $578 million including 506 million for the IBNR portion.

During  the  second  quarter,  we  experienced  $40  million  of  property  casualty  net  favorable  reserve

development  on  prior  accident  years  that  benefited  the  combined  ratio  by  1.9  percentage  points.

The commercial lines segment saw overall favorable reserve development of $29 million driven by

workers  compensation  and  commercial  property,  which  more  than  offset  the  unfavorable

development  in  commercial  casualty.  Commercial  casualty  was  again  the  line  of  business  having

the largest amount of unfavorable reserve development with a total of $28 million for the quarter, or

less  than  1%  of  that  line's  year-end  2023  reserve  balance.  We  released  reserves  in  some  recent

accident years and added reserves totaling $51 million in aggregate for accident years prior to 2021,

including $30 million for 2018 through 2020 due to case incurred losses emerging at amounts higher

than we expected.

The unfavorable amount reflects our slowing the release of IBNR reserves for some of those older

accident years while adding to others. On an all-lines basis by exiting year, net reserve development

for  the  first  six  months  of  2024  included  favorable  $269  million  for  2023,  favorable  $36  million  for

2022,  favorable  $17  million  for  2021,  and  an  unfavorable  $182  million  in  aggregate  for  accident

years  prior  to  2021,  with  commercial  casualty  representing  $167  million  of  the  unfavorable  $182

million. I'll conclude my comments with the capital management highlights, another area where we

have a consistent long-term approach. We paid $125 million in dividends to shareholders during the

second quarter of 2024.

We  also  repurchased  395,000  shares  at  an  average  price  per  share  of  $116.33.  We  think  our

financial flexibility and our financial strength are both in excellent shape. Parent company cash and

marketable  securities  at  quarter  end  was  nearly  $5  billion.  Debt  to  total  capital  contributed  --

continued to be under 10%.

And our quarter-end book value was at a record high $81.79 per share with $12.8 billion of GAAP

consolidated shareholders' equity providing plenty of capacity for profitable growth of our insurance

operations. Now, I'll turn the call back over to Steve.

Steve Spray -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mike. Before we move on to questions, I'd like to share some additional observations based

on my first few months as CEO. I've spoken with many of our agents and associates and they share

my high level of confidence in the future of this company. In the first six months of this year, we've

achieved a combined ratio of 96.1%.

That makes 12.5 consecutive years of underwriting profit, a core loss ratio that continues to improve,

growth in net written premiums of 14% with investment income up 13%. We've set the stage for 64

years  of  increasing  dividends  to  shareholders.  In  the  most  challenging  market  of  my  career,  our

balance  sheet  allows  us  to  lean  in  and  grow  with  our  agents,  and  I'm  really  excited  about  where

we're  headed.  As  a  reminder,  with  Mike  and  me  today  are  Steve  Johnston,  Steve  Soloria,  Mark

Schambow, and Theresa Hoffer.

Jason, please open the call for questions.

Operator

Questions & Answers:



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